润成月报l新一轮科技革命列车倍道兼进 润成助您拥抱中国科技产业投资机遇(中英版)

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2021年是十四五的开局之年,数字经济成为有效推动经济高质量发展的新动能和新引擎。当前,新一轮科技革命正在全球加速兴起,中国的角色已从过去的追赶者逐渐向领跑者转变。在未来的十五年中,智能革命与内外循环将是产业发展的核心关键词。


The year 2021 marks the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan. Digital economy has become a fresh momentum and new driver of effectively boosting the high-quality development of Chinese economy. A new round of technological revolution is emerging across the globe at an accelerated speed, in which China has gradually changed its role from a follower to a leader. In the 15 years to come, intelligence revolution and domestic & foreign circulation will be keywords central to industrial development.


当前,从创业板到科创板,已有超过300家科创企业成功上市融资,板块市值从最初的5500亿元迅速扩大至近5万亿元,越来越多的初创期、成长期科技型企业得以孵化为“独角兽”和“小巨人”企业。


Over 300 technological innovators have so far successfully got listed on the ChiNext Board and the Sci-Tech Board for financing. The market capitalization of the Sci-Tech Board has increased fast from RMB550 billion in the very beginning to close to RMR5 trillion. A growing number of technology enterprises in their start-up and growth phases have been able to become unicorns and small giants through incubation.


润成始终以前瞻性的行业分析和战略层面的规划布局为客户差异化投资规划的基础。如何抢抓新一轮科技产业变革机遇,把握投资机会,本期润成月报将为您细说。


RC Family Office differentiates the foundation of investment plan for each client based on our prospective industry analysis and strategic planning. In this monthly update, RC Family Office will introduce in detail how to capture the industrial transformation opportunities in the new round of technological revolution and seize the investment opportunities.

2022121


百年变局中国科技

实现经济腾飞的坚实基本盘

China’s technological advances in the midst

of major changes unseen in a century provide

a firm foundation for its economic take-off


1.中国正勇登本轮科技革命浪潮之巅。China is leading the current wave of technological revolution


中国改革开放的四十年实现了实质的“量速双增”。在信息化与全球化的浪潮中,互联网和智能化的迅速发展为中国带来了财富和机遇,在互联网时代下中国也展示出抓住机遇并付之实践的发展之路。


China has doubled its economic volume and growth speed in the four decades since reform and opening-up. Riding the wave of IT application and globalization, the quick advancement of the Internet and the mobile Internet has brought about wealth and opportunities for China, and the country has walked onto the road of seizing opportunities and acting in the Internet era.


目前,中国的5G基站数、人工智能论文引用率和专利申请量(如图1、2所示)、高铁专利与里程数以及新能源汽车普及率等指标均为全球第一。我国的“天问一号”实现了世界首个能一次性完成环绕、着陆、巡视火星3种任务的火星探测器,未来,依托于我国逐步完善的科技体制和产业基础,我国将进一步加强科技竞争力,逐渐具备跨越发展的基础和条件,在全球科技发展的浪潮中迎头赶上。


Currently, China ranks first in the world in terms of the number of 5G base stations, the citation rate of artificial intelligence (AI) papers and the number of AI patent applications (Figures 1 and 2), the number of high-speed rail patents and mileage, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles. China landed a spacecraft on Mars in the Tianwen-1 mission, becoming the first in the world to orbit, land and operate a rover on the Red Planet at one time. In the future, relying on the gradually improved science and tcountry echnology system and industrial foundation, China will further strengthen its scientific and technological competitiveness and gradually foster the foundation and conditions for leapfrog development, so as to catch up in the wave of global technological advances.


图1    过去十年人工智能领域高水平论文发表量前十国家

Figure 1: Top 10 Countries by the Number of High-level AI Papers Published in the Past Decade

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Source:Institute for Artificial Intelligence, Tsinghua University


图2 过去十年全球人工智能专利申请量

Figure 2: The Number of Global AI Patent Applications in the Past Decade

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Source:Institute for Artificial Intelligence, Tsinghua University


2.中国科技产业将迎来广阔的投资机遇China’s technology industry will embrace wide-ranging investment opportunities


我国科技产业的优质投资标的不断增加,随着2019年科创板的全面推出,优质的科技公司投资标的不断登陆A股市场(如图3所示),机构投资者已集体加仓科技股。主动性权益基金万家科技创新A、诺安成长、易方达信息科技等增持大量科技股票。


High-quality investees are increasingly seen in China’s technology industry. With the across-the-board debut of the Sci-Tech Board in 2019, high-quality technology companies have continuously entered the A-share market (Figure 3), and institutional investors have collectively increased investment in technology stocks. Active equity funds, including Wanjia Technological Innovation A, Lion Growth Fund, and E Fund Information Technology Fund, hold a larger portfolio of technology stocks.


图3   科创板开板以来的整体表现

Figure 3: Overall Performance of the Sci-Tech Board since Debut

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Source:RC Family Office


近年来,我国数字经济蓬勃发展,新业态、新模式层出不穷,推动着经济转型升级。与之相对应的芯片、新能源、网络安全等产业链的相关企业获得较高增长空间与投资潜力。中国的科技发展潜力吸引外资逆势加仓中国资产,至2020年底时,北向资金的配置已从传统蓝筹向科技成长的结构调整,明显增持新能源、医药及TMT板块,减持传统重仓的金融地产及部分消费板块。以电力设备及新能源、医药、计算机、电子等行业为代表的科技板块在2020年获得增量资金合计达到1109亿元。


In recent years, China’s digital economy has been booming, with new industries and new models emerging in a continuum, giving a push to economic transformation and upgrade. In this context, relevant enterprises on the chip, new energy and network security industry chains acquire high growth space and investment potential. China’s technology development potential attracts foreign investors to buy more Chinese assets against the headwinds. By the end of 2020, northbound capital had undergone a restructuring of their allocations from traditional blue chips to growth stocks in the technology industry, by significantly increasing their holdings in new energy, pharmaceuticals and TMT while reducing exposure to the financial, real estate and some consumer staples sectors in which they usually heavily overweighted. The technology sector, represented by power equipment, new energy, pharmaceuticals, computer and electronics, reported an increment of investment capital at RMB110.9 billion in 2020.

2022121


中国增量时代

投资科技产业正当时

Investing in the technology industry is just

in time as China steps into the incremental era


1.多重利好助力中国科技企业腾飞。Multiple positive factors to help Chinese technology enterprises take off


十九大报告提出,要“着力加快建设实体经济、科技创新、现代金融、人力资源协同发展的产业体系”。 我国政府将逐步解决高科技企业投资中面临的商业模式新、估值难度大、资金需求高、盈利周期长以及投资回报不确定性强等困难,构建完善的科技金融体系。


According to the report delivered at the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,” we need to accelerate the building of an industrial system that promotes coordinated development of the real economy with technological innovation, modern finance, and human resources.” The Chinese government will gradually solve the difficulties faced by investing in high-tech enterprises, such as new business models, difficult valuation, large capital requirement, long profit cycle and uncertainty of investment returns, and build a sound technology financial system.


近年来,我国各省市银行均为战略性新兴产业提供了倾斜政策,推出了科技创新信贷产品的发展。如上海已逐步探索并形成了“1+4+1”的科技金融工作机制,通过创新科技信贷体系累计为8000余家科技型中小微企业提供金融服务,授信金额达2162亿元。与此同时,科创板的开办也进一步打开了资本市场支持科技创新的通道,更多优质公司开始选择在大陆和香港市场上市。截至2021年7月底,科创板的上市公司已达313家,总市值达到5.38万亿元。


In recent years, banks in all provinces and municipalities in China have provided favorable policies for strategic emerging industries and launched credit products for technological innovation. For instance, Shanghai has gradually explored and formed the “1+4+1” technology finance mechanism, and provided financial services for more than 8,000 micro, small and medium-sized technology enterprises accumulatively through an innovative technology credit system, involving a credit amount of RMB216.2 billion. At the same time, the debut of the Sci-Tech Board has further opened the channel for the capital market to support technological innovation, and more high-quality companies have chosen to list in the mainland and Hong Kong markets. By the end of July 2021, 313 companies had gone public on the Sci-Tech Board, with a total market capitalization of RMB5.38 trillion.


除政策因素的支持外,我国的数字经济发展也相当迅速(如图4所示),已经处在世界前端。疫情更是加速了数字经济的进一步发展,我国远程办公、在线医疗等新模式新业态的发展动能充分释放,成为支撑经济稳定发展的新增长点,并为相关企业开拓新业务或加快转型提供了保障。


Apart from the support from policy factors, China’s digital economy is developing at a gallop (Figure 4) and has already at the forefront of the world. The COVID-19 pandemic has even accelerated the further growth of the digital economy. The development momentum of new models and new business formats such as telecommuting and online diagnosis & treatment has been fully tapped in China, becoming a fresh growth driver to back the stable development of Chinese economy and ensuring that related enterprises can develop new business or pick up speed in transformation.


图4 中国数字经济规模(万亿元)

Figure 4: Volume of China’s Digital Economy (trillions of RMB yuan)

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Source:RC Family Office


2.具有高成长潜力的科技投资主线已浮上水面。The focus of technology investment with high growth potential has surfaced


结合国家政策导向、产业发展趋势等因素,目前已有多条科技产业投资赛道表现出较强的确定性和较高的成长性:


In combination with national policy guidance, industrial development trend and other factors, many fields of technology industry investment have so far shown strong certainty and high growth:


5G落地催生的新兴产业。5G-enabled emerging industry


5G技术的普及已催生更大规模的新兴业态,其中智能汽车的发展机遇最为突出。2017年以来,国务院、国家发改委等部门陆续发布包括《智能汽车创新发展战略》等多个智能汽车相关的政策性文件,据瑞信预测,L3和L4/5高级别的智能网联车渗透率将分别在未来十年达到63%和23%(如图5所示),汽车行业智能网联化的势头明显。上汽、北汽、长安、广汽等传统车企,以及华为、阿里、小米、360等科技企业已投身这一赛道。


The popularity of 5G technology has created larger-scale emerging industries, among which the development opportunities of intelligent vehicles are the most eye-catching. Since 2017, the State Council, the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments have successively released a number of intelligent vehicle-related policy documents, including the Innovation-driven Development Strategy for Intelligent Vehicles. By the estimate of Credit Suisse, the penetration rate of high-level intelligent networked vehicles (including L3-conditional driving automation, L4-high driving automation; and L5-full driving automation) will reach 63% and 23%, respectively, in the next decade (Figure 5), and the intelligent network-based development momentum in the auto industry is gaining steam. Traditional auto makers such as SAIC, BAIC, Changan and GAC, as well as technology firms such as Huawei, Alibaba, Xiaomi and 360 have thrown themselves into developing intelligent networked vehicles.


润成认为智能网联汽车不仅拥有广阔的市场空间,其在产品结构、功能实现等方面与传统汽车存在较大差异,具有压倒性优势。同时,数据安全、自动驾驶系统随机故障等问题催促着科技企业改进车辆安全相关基本特征,不断改善技术,增加产业链的投资机会。智能汽车赛道是一个正在起步、前景光明且会有较大增长的行业。


RC Family Office believes that intelligent networked vehicles not only boast a broad market space, but also have overwhelming advantages over traditional vehicles because of their big differences in product structure and function realization, among other aspects. Meanwhile, problems, including data insecurity and random failures of auto-driving systems, are urging technology companies to improve the basic features related to vehicle safety and continuously better the technologies, thus increasing investment opportunities in the industry chain. Intelligent vehicles imply a fledgling and promising industry that will see significant growth.


图5 中国L2-L5自动驾驶渗透率预测

Figure 5: Forecasts on L2-L5 Autonomous Driving Penetration in China

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Source: Credit Suisse Estimate


芯片产业链的国代替代。Homegrown chips


中国作为全球最大的芯片消费国,芯片技术安全可控是重中之重。经过15年的发展,我国在01专项和02专项上都取得了一定的技术突破。目前,在涉及光刻机生产制造的四个核心技术领域:设计和总体集成、光源系统和光学系统、双工件台、浸液系统方面,中国企业仍在大基金的支持下实现自给自足。润成认为,尽管我国的芯片产业并未处于世界领先水平,但在国家政策加国产化需求的加持下定能持续释放发展潜力。


Security controllability of chip technology is a top priority for China, the world’s largest chip consumer. After 15 years of development, China has made certain technical breakthroughs in both the 01 special programme (core electronic devices, high-end general chips and basic software products) and the 02 special programme (manufacturing technology and complete sets of technology for very large scale integrated circuits). At present, Chinese companies are still self-sufficient with the support of large funds in the four fields of technology central to lithography manufacturing: design and overall integration, light source and optical systems, dual workpiece, and immersion systems. In the opinion of RC Family Office, although China’s chip industry is not at the world’s top level yet, it will continue to unleash its development potential with the support of national policies and given the demand for homegrown products.


制造业单项冠军企业。Single champion manufacturers


为了帮助具有科创能力的企业提升国际竞争力,工信部在2016年发布了《制造业单项冠军企业培育提升专项行动实施方案》,开始展开制造业单项冠军企业培育的相关行动。这些申报企业均具有强大的创新能力,研发机构拥有率97%,研发人员占比达20.4%,是高新技术企业认定标准的2倍多;平均拥有有效专利609.6项,平均发明专利254.7件,有66.4%的企业发明专利占各类专利总数比重超20%,远超一般制造企业水平。润成认为若能准确地判断行业发展前景和冠军企业的科创潜力,在细分行业中的冠军企业将是很好的投资标的。


To help technologically innovative enterprises enhance international competitiveness, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology unveiled the Implementation Plan for the Special Campaign to Foster and Improve Single Champion Enterprises in the Manufacturing Industry in 2016, rolling out the initiative aimed at fostering single champion manufacturers. These applicants all have strong innovation capabilities. 97% of them have R&D institutions, while the number of researchers and developers accounts for 20.4% of the headcount, more than twice of the standard for identification of high-tech enterprises; they have 609.6 valid patents on average, including 254.7 invention patents, and 66.4% of them have invention patents accounting for more than 20% of all kinds of patents, far exceeding the level of general manufacturers. RC Family Office believes that given an accurate view on the development prospect of the industry and the technological innovation potential of the champion enterprises, the champion enterprises in different segments of manufacturing will be good investment targets.


绿色低碳产业。Green, low-carbon industry


在我国力争于2030年实现碳达峰,并在2060年实现碳中和的背景下,与此息息相关的新能源及绿色科技产业将迎来巨大的增长机遇。一方面,我国能源结构正经历深刻调整,尽管整体上对化石能源的依赖正逐渐下降,但未来仍有较大的压缩空间(如图6),掌握先进新能源技术与储能技术的企业将得到更大的发展舞台。


China will strive to peak its CO2 emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. In this context, the new energy and green technology industry, which is closely related to the above goals, will embrace huge growth opportunities. For one, China’s energy structure is undergoing profound readjustment, with gradually less reliance on fossil energy on a whole. However, such reliance can be still largely reduced in the future (Figure 6), providing a greater development space for enterprises that master advanced new energy and energy storage technologies.


另一方面,绿色节能环保技术也是我国降低消耗、减少污染的重要选择。为加快绿色技术进口替代,打赢污染防治攻坚战,赢取全球最大的“绿色技术”市场,我国正加大对相关技术与企业的支持力度,借此逐步释放绿色科技产业的巨量投资机会。


For two, green energy-saving and environmental protection technology is also an important choice for China to reduce energy consumption and pollution. In order to accelerate the substitution of foreign green technology by domestic one, win the critical battle of pollution prevention and control, and become the world’s largest “green technology” market, China is increasing the support for related technologies and enterprises, which is expected to gradually release the huge investment opportunities in the green technology industry.


图6    全国电力装机结构

Figure 6: Structure of China’s Installed Power Generation Capacity

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Source:China Power Media Group Research


科创新高地 投资须谨慎

Invest prudently in the

pace-setting technological innovation sector


1.投资科技产业更需专业技术鉴别能力。Investing in the technology industry calls for expertise to discern the right targets


相较于投资传统实体行业而言,投资科技产业更需要决策者对产业发展前景、技术、行业壁垒等方面有深刻的理解,这样才能对被投企业做出准确的判断,这对投资人提出了更高的要求。只有在科技行业的投资中制定更专业、更聚焦的投资策略,才能找出某个细分行业里的头部企业和优质企业,进行合理的配置。


Compared with the investment in traditional industries in the real economy, it is all the more necessary for investment decision makers to have a deep understanding of the technology industry’s development prospect, technology and industrial barrier. Only in this way can they make a correct judgment on the invested enterprises. This raises an even higher requirement on investors. Only a more professional and focused strategy for investment in the technology industry can help investors discern leading and high-quality enterprises in a segment and conduct reasonable allocations.


被投企业的核心技术是否具有足够重要的科技壁垒,技术应用场景是否能够支持未来发展,有无核心研发优势,这些因素决定被投企业能不能成为其领域的领跑者和长跑者,因此投资者在选择标的时需仔细斟酌考量。


Whether the core technology of the invested enterprises has sufficiently important technological barriers, the technology application scenarios can support future development, and these enterprises own core R&D strengths determine whether they can become the long-term leaders in their respective fields. For this reason, investors need to consider carefully when selecting a target.


2.在较长期的投资过程中需面对更大的不确定性。Investors have to face greater uncertainty in the longer investment process


如今科技赛道较为拥挤,项目估值也较高,导致资本的投资收益出现“打折扣”甚至估值倒挂的风险。投资于长期项目,需要投资者有足够的耐心和韧性来陪伴企业从成长期到成熟期,并帮助企业从技术研发到成果商品化和产业化。


Investors have swarmed into technology investment, and many projects have high valuations, leading to reduced investment returns or even the risk of inverted valuations. Investing in long-term projects requires investors to be patient and resilient enough to accompany enterprises from growth to maturity, and help them go from technology development to commercialization and industrialization of R&D results.


在这个长期的投资过程中,投资者不仅要承受行业发展的起伏波折,面对市场情绪的变化,还要应对政策、监管的不确定性。国内外的监管严控之下,许多巨头公司的价值迅速缩水,投资者的收益受到重创。如何应对监管方面的不确定性,也是科技行业投资者面临的一大挑战。


In such longer investment process, investors have to not only weather through the ups and downs of industry development and face changes in market sentiment, but also deal with policy and regulatory uncertainties. Many giant companies have seen their value shrink rapidly under the tightened supervision at home and abroad, and investors’ returns have been thus dealt a heavy blow. How to address regulatory uncertainties is also a major challenge for investors in the technology industry.

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润成专业锦囊 助您拥抱机遇

Tips from RC to help you tap opportunities


5G、物联网、人工智能等新一代底层技术的变革,为各个行业带来进化的可能;目标用户的变化给行业带来新的需求痛点。然而,科技行业需要投资者具有专业的技术鉴别能力和足够的投资韧性,投资者在机遇面前也面临着更高挑战。那么,针对科技投资赛道,润成将为客户做什么?


The changes in 5G, IoT, AI and other next-generation underlying technologies have made possible the advancement of various industries, while the changes in target users have engendered new pain points in demand to the industries. However, the technology industry requires investors to have the very expertise to discern the right targets and sufficient investment resilience, and investors also have to tackle more demanding challenges in face of opportunities. So, what will RC Family Office do for our clients in respect of technology investment?


1.搭建细分科技领域专家智库网络。Develop a network of expert think tanks across different technology fields


润成将利用在各科研机构、实体领域、细分投资领域的专家网络资源,搭建由各细分科技领域专家组成的智库平台,深入了解科技领域前沿,掌握行业动态。


Leveraging the expert resources in various scientific research institutions, real economy and different investment fields, RC Family Office will develop a think tank platform composed of experts across different technology fields, so as to gain an in-depth understanding of the technology frontier and keep abreast of the industry dynamics.


2.开展主题闭门研讨会议。Carry out thematic closed-door symposiums


润成将针对新能源、碳中和、新材料、高端装备等不同的主题,组建领域专家与润成投资团队的闭门研讨会议,多维度掌握最新科技前沿信息,设计更科学、合理的战略投资决策。


RC Family Office will hold closed-door symposiums between experts in different fields and our investment team concerning varied themes such as new energy, carbon neutrality, new materials, and high-end equipment, to be well informed of the latest information about technology frontier in multiple dimensions and thereby design more scientific and reasonable strategic investment decisions.


3.针对性为境内外客户构建定制化投资方案。Customize investment solutions for Chinese and foreign clients


润成将根据客户差异化需求,为其定制个性化投资方案,包括但不限于交易结构设计、风控结构设计、被投企业评估等全方位的投资规划。在境外客户方面,润成将发挥本土优势和信息优势,充分获取内外信息源,为投资中的政策风险和行业系统风险提供强大的信息支撑预警与分析,并进行持续的投后追踪及风险防范。


RC Family Office will customize a full package of investment solutions for our clients based on their differentiated needs, including but not limited to transaction structure design, risk control structure design, and evaluation of the invested enterprises. For overseas clients, RC Family Office will take advantage of local and information advantages to fully access internal and external information sources, provide strong information-backed early warning and analysis of policy risks and an industry’s systematic risks during investment, and conduct continuous post-investment tracking and risk prevention.

2022121


------以上观点来源于润成家族办公室专家团队

Prepared by: expert team of RC Family Office


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