润成月报l横发逆起:外资逆势加仓中国资产 中国市场蕴藏投资红利（中英版）

Foreign Investors Buck the

Trend to Buy Chinese Assets, and Reform

Continuously Unleashes Investment Dividends

—Analysis of Hot Investment Trend

乔·拜登当选美国新一任总统后，延续了唐纳德·特朗普对中国采取的遏制战略，中美双方在国际舞台上的博弈呈现你来我往、互不相让之势，并成为全球金融市场上最大的不确定因素之一，而润成研究数据显示外资仍坚定看好中国的投资前景，其流入规模在进入2021年后不降反增。巨变之下，于境外投资者而言中国将拥有哪些绝佳的投资机遇？这将为中国投资者带来哪些利好联动？润成将为您展开解析。

Joe Biden has carried forward the strategy of Donald Trump to contain China after he swore into office. China and the U.S. are at loggerheads on the international arena, and the gaming between the two countries has become one of the biggest unstable factors in the global financial market. But our data shows that foreign investors still firmly believe promising prospects for investing in China and that foreign inflows have actually increased so far this year. What ideal investment opportunities are there in China for foreign investors in the midst of tremendous changes? How will this benefit Chinese investors? We will conduct an analysis.

Expectation vs Reality

密迹弥纶不露尘 天龙八部喜还惊

近期，美国参议院通过《2021年美国创新与竞争法(USICA)》，囊括了一揽子针对中国的法案与修正案，表明拜登政府的对华政策正走在“制度化”的轨道上。与此同时，美国国家安全委员会印太政策协调员库尔特·坎贝尔（Kurt Campbell）也公开表示，中美之间的战略接触时期已经结束。总体来看，中美关系正持续转冷，甚至经历建交以来最严峻的考验，这也成为扰动全球市场神经的重要因素。2018年，特朗普发起的中美贸易战就曾使全球金融市场遭受严重冲击，目前这一影响仍将具有持续性和不确定性。

Days ago, the U.S. Senate passed the U.S. Innovation and Competition Act of 2021 (USICA), which contains a package of bills and amendments against China, indicating that the Biden administration’s China policy is on an “institutionalized” track. The period that was broadly described as engagement between China and the U.S. has come to an end, Kurt Campbell, the U.S. coordinator for Indo-Pacific affairs on the National Security Council, said in public. Overall, China-U.S. relations are getting increasingly colder or even experiencing the most severe test since the establishment of diplomatic relations, which has become an important disturbance in the global market. The U.S.-China trade war initiated by Trump in 2018 dealt a heavy blow to global financial market, and this impact still lingers with uncertainty.

在中美对抗局面逐渐升温的背景下，外资用“真金白银”和实际行动亮明其投资态度，即看好中国的投资机遇。商务部数据显示，今年1-4月中国实际利用外商直接投资达到了590亿美元，明显高于往年同期水平，较2020年同比增长了42.7%。与此同时，外资流入中国资本市场的规模亦远高于其他新兴市场国家。国际金融协会（IIF）最新数据显示，2021年4月新兴市场股票和债券非居民投资组合净流入455亿美元，为今年1月以来最高，其中中国占外国资金流入新兴市场股票净额的比重达到了惊人的95%；而流入中国债市的资金亦同比大幅增加，为48亿美元，去年4月这一数据为净流出116亿美元。

Against the increasing confrontation between China and the U.S., foreign investors have made clear their investment attitude, i.e. positive about the investment opportunities in China, with investment spree. The Ministry of Commerce said China’s actual use of foreign direct investment (FDI) hit USD59 billion in the first four months of 2021, significantly higher than the same period of prior years and up 42.7% over a year earlier. Meanwhile, foreign inflows into China’s capital market were also much higher than those into other emerging market countries. The latest data of the Institute of International Finance (IIF) indicates that investors poured USD45.5 billion of net non-resident portfolio flows into emerging-market equities and bonds in April 2021, the highest since January this year, with China accounting for a staggering 95% of net foreign inflows into emerging-market equities; and inflows into China’s bond market also rose sharply year-on-year to USD4.8 billion, compared with net outflows of USD11.6 billion a year ago.

Figure 1:Domestic RMB financial assets held by foreign institutions and individuals(recent 3 years)

source: CEIC, RC Family Office.

Greatly Resilient Chinese Economy

墙角数枝梅 凌寒独自开

2020年年初，“外资撤出中国”论调甚嚣尘上，一些发达国家人士提出要让实体产业搬离中国、回迁本土。然而，国家外汇管理局发布的《2020年中国国际收支报告》披露，2020年外资来华各类投资5206亿美元，较2019年增长81%。外资并没有大规模流出，反而有所增长。联合国贸易和发展会议发布的《全球投资趋势监测报告》也显示，受新冠疫情影响，2020年全球外国直接投资（FDI）总额约为8590亿美元，与2019年相比缩水42%。比全球金融危机后的低谷还低30%。但中国FDI逆势增长4%，达1630亿美元，中国超过美国成为全球最大外资流入国。相比之下，流入美国的外国直接投资下降49%，降至1340亿美元。

In early 2020, a great clamor rose around the claim of “foreign investment withdrawal from China”, and some people from developed countries proposed to relocate the real industry to the homeland from China. However, the China’s Balance of Payments Report 2020 published by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange reveals that foreign investments in China grew by 81% over 2019 to USD520.6 billion in 2020. Foreign capital did not flee China but increased. According to the Global Investment Trend Monitor released by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), global FDI collapsed by 42% in 2020 from 2019 to an estimated USD859 billion due to the disruptions of COVID-19, which was 30% lower than the trough in the wake of the international financial crisis. However, FDI in China bucked the trend and grew by 4% to USD163 billion, making the country surpass the U.S. as the world’s largest FDI recipient. In contrast, FDI inflows to the U.S. fell by 49% to USD134 billion.

Figure 2. FDI in China(recent 5 years)

source: CEIC, RC Family Office.

受疫情影响，亚洲价值链在世界经济体系中正在崛起，特别是越来越多目光、资金投向中国，推动着全球产业发展格局再调整。这些年来流入中国的外资一直稳定增长，疫情暴发后，中国成功应对了疫情的冲击，同时，中国经济率先恢复增长，成为吸引外资的亮点，《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》和中欧投资协定也提振了投资者信心。疫情期间，跨国企业对在华产业链、供应链的高度依赖也维持了在华投资的稳定和拓展。部分行业的进一步开放也促进了新的投资增加。中国政府采取了有效的投资便利化措施，有助于稳定投资。

Due to COVID-19, Asia’s value chain is rising in the world economic system. In particular, as the world pays increasing attention and directs more capital to China, the global industrial development landscape is driven to reshuffle. Foreign inflows into China have been on a stable rise over these years. After the pandemic struck, China successfully put the virus under control and returned to growth at the earliest, making it stand out and attract foreign capital. Besides, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and the China-EU investment agreement also boosted the confidence of investors. In the time of COVID-19, multinationals’ great reliance on Chinese industrial and supply chains ensured the stability and expansion of their investment in China. The further liberalization of some sectors has increased new investment, too. The effective investment facilitation actions taken by the Chinese government have contributed to the stabilization of investment.

Opportunities in the Chinese Market

君子藏器于身 待时而动

1、金融资产收益优势：在全球货币政策保持宽松态势的情况下，境内外资金对“高收益、低波动”特征的金融产品需求持续提升。目前中国境内金融市场是全球唯一同时具备“收益率可观”、“汇率前景积极”、“市场具备的深度和广度足以应对主要发达经济体央行大规模量宽可能带来的大规模资本流入”等优点的市场，风险收益结构优势一枝独秀。最主要的是，相较于目前全球债券市场平均收益率低于0.3%，中国国债平均收益率仍高于3%，估值较具吸引力。与此同时，中国A股市场在经历连续多年的调整后，仍处于历史低位水平，且相较于不断创新高的美股市场更具估值优势。

The return on financial assets is handsome:In the context that global monetary policies remain easing, Chinese and foreign investors have increasing demand for financial products with high yield but low volatility. For the moment, China’s financial market is the only one globally with a suite of strengths, including “handsome return”, “positive exchange rate prospects” and the fact that “the market is intensive and extensive enough to cope with the massive capital inflows possibly brought by the large-scale quantitative easing of central banks of major developed economies”. Thus, the country boasts a uniquely sound risk & return structure. What’s the most important is that the average yield of Chinese government bonds remains as high as 3% while that of global bonds is only less than 0.3%, and that the valuation of Chinese bonds is attractive. In addition, China’s A-share market is still at a historic low after years’ corrections, and has the advantage in valuation compared with the U.S. stock market which continues to hit record highs.

2、本轮信息产业革命的领先地位：当前，全球正处于新一轮信息产业革命的进程中。基于配套齐全的工业基础、储备丰富的科技人才和广阔的本土科技消费市场等优势，中国在5G、央行数字货币、车联网等方面已取得显著的竞争优势，走在了世界前列。据世界知识产权组织（WIPO）与康奈尔大学等联合发布的《2020年全球创新指数》报告，中国的综合实力在中等收入经济体中已连续八年居位列首位，是唯一进入全球创新指数前20名的中等收入经济体。就专利申请数量而言，中国再次超越美国和日本，连续9年排名全球第一。

China is on the frontier of this round of information industry revolution: Presently, the world is undergoing a new round of information industry revolution. Thanks to a well-equipped industrial foundation, a large pool of scientific and technical talents and a vast market for spending on science and technology, China has fostered remarkable competitive edges and led the world in 5G, central bank digital currency and the Internet of Vehicles, among other fields. According to the Global Innovation Index 2020 report co-published by the World Intellectual Property Organization and Cornell University, China has ranked first among middle-income economies for the eighth consecutive year in terms of overall strength, and it is the only middle-income economy to enter the top 20 of the Global Innovation Index. By the number of patent applications, China once again defeated the U.S. and Japan to be the world’s largest for the ninth consecutive year.

3、人民币具备良好避险属性：目前，中国仍是完全控制住疫情的少数经济体，经济复苏进度保持前列，在疫情给世界经济造成几十年罕见大衰退时成为唯一一个实现正增长的主要经济体，成为跨境资金的理想选择。同时，中国经济高增长、内需市场广阔、政治格局稳定、制度改革深化等促进人民币资产成为新兴市场中的AAA品种，人民币资产在全球范围已表现出一定避险属性。

RMB is capable of hedging risks in nature: To date, only a small group of economies, including China, have reined in the virus. China leads the way toward economic recovery. As the only major economy that has achieved positive growth amid the pandemic outbreak which trapped the world economy into great recession unseen in several decades, China is an ideal destination of cross-border capital. Furthermore, China’s high economic growth, broad internal demand market, stable politics and deepening of institutional reforms have driven RMB assets to become triple-A products in the emerging markets. RMB assets show itself as a refugee worldwide.

4、中国投资环境稳定性向好，营商政策逐步改善：受变异新冠病毒蔓延、疫苗普及放缓等诸多因素影响，全球经贸环境仍存不确定性。在此背景下，中国坚定实施互利共赢的开放战略，为动荡中的世界经济带来稳定预期。尤其是《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》（RCEP）的签署和中欧投资协定谈判的完成，对未来全球FDI复苏和进一步增长都是利好消息。RCEP不仅可以进一步挖掘区域内各成员间的FDI流动潜力，还将推动外来投资的大幅增长。而中欧投资协定一经生效，不仅将极大地促进投资，还将推动双边贸易发展以及产业链进一步融合。中国打造的服务业开放综合示范区、跨境电子商务综合试验区等各类园区，探索更完善、更公平、更透明的竞争市场。自2020年起，中国施行《优化营商环境条例》和外商投资法，进一步缩减外商投资准入负面清单，并将全国外商投资准入负面清单缩短至33条，自贸试验区缩短到30条，而鼓励外商投资产业目录则不断增加，2020年新版比上一版增加了127条，一减一增，令外企来华投资更加自由便利。

China’s investment environment is making steady progress, and its business policy is gradually improving: A slew of factors, e.g. spread of mutated coronavirus strains and slowdown of vaccination, still impose uncertainty upon the global economic and trade environment. Against this backdrop, China’s firm commitment to the mutually-beneficial and win-win opening-up strategy instills stabilization expectations into the turbulent world economy. In particular, the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement and the completion of negotiations on the China-EU investment deal are conducive to the recovery and further growth of global FDI in the future. RCEP not only can tap deeper into the FDI flow potential of member states in the region but will also fuel the substantial growth of incoming investment. The China-EU investment deal, once effective, will greatly boost investment on one part and give a push to the growth of bilateral trade and the further integration of industrial chains on the other. China builds a variety of parks and zones, including the comprehensive demonstration zones of service sector opening-up and the comprehensive pilot zones of cross-border e-commerce, with the aim to explore how to make the competitive market sounder, fairer and more transparent. China has started to implement the Regulations on Improving the Business Environment and the Foreign Investment Law since 2020. The items on the national negative list for foreign investment have been further cut to 33, and down to 30 for the pilot free trade zones, while those on the list of industries for encouraging foreign investment have been increased, 127 more than the last version, providing more leeway and convenience for foreign companies’ investment in China.

5、中国市场不断释放强劲磁力，中国债券市场已被全球三大主要债券指数悉数纳入：

As the Chinese market continues to strongly appeal to the rest of the world, the country’s bond market has been included in the three key international bond indices:

今年3月30日，富时罗素发布半年度国家分类评估结果。在此次评估中，富时罗素确认将中国国债纳入其世界国债指数（WGBI），权重为5.25%，并在36个月内分阶段纳入，自今年10月29日开始生效。这意味着，中国债券市场已被全球三大主要债券指数悉数纳入，即除WGBI外，其他两个分别是彭博巴克莱全球综合指数、摩根大通全球新兴市场政府债券指数。基于跟踪该指数的约2.5万亿美元管理资金以及5.25%的纳入权重计算，未来36个月，中国债市有望迎来逾1300亿美元的被动资金流入。

On March 30, 2021, FTSE Russell published the results of its semi-annual Country Classification Review. It confirmed that Chinese Government Bonds would be included in the FTSE World Government Bond Index (WGBI) with a weighting of 5.25% over a period of 36 months commencing with an effective date of October 29, 2021, a step marking the presence of Chinese bonds in all three of the main international bond indices, adding to Barclays’ (Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index) and JP Morgan’s (J.P. Morgan Government Bond Index - Emerging Markets) suite. With around USD2.5 trillion tracking the index, and a 5.25% weighting, a USD130 billion inflow of passive capital was to be expected on China’s bond market in the coming 36 months.

从全球范围看，人民币债券全球资产配置占比显著低于中国GDP的全球份额和中国出口的全球份额。目前人民币资产在全球官方外汇储备配置中的占比仅略高于2%，大幅度低于其他特别提款权货币占比，同时低于特别提款权篮子中人民币权重10.92%。因此，中国债券全球资产配置的结构性流入才刚起步。渣打、高盛、摩根等国际投行预测，在诸多积极因素推动下，外资流入中国债市的规模在2020年超过1万亿元人民币后，在2021年或将增加至1.3万亿元至1.5万亿元，创历史新高。2021年底外资持有中国在岸债券总规模，或由2020年11月底的3.1万亿元升至4.5万亿到4.7万亿元之间。据估测，2021年外资持有中国国债的份额或由2020年的9%升至约12%。与此同时，由于中外利差的存在，人民币处于升值轨道上，更多的外资流入将进一步强化人民币资产升值的预期，实现从基本面到资金面的“戴维斯双击”。

On a global scale, the global asset allocation of RMB bonds is significantly lower than the share of China’s GDP and of China’s exports in the global total. The current share of RMB assets in the global official foreign exchange reserves is only slightly above 2%, far lower than the share of other SDR currencies and also lower than the 10.92% weighting of RMB in the SDR basket. As a result, structural inflows of global capital into China’s bond market are just beginning. International investment banks such as Standard Chartered, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan predict that foreign inflows into China’s bond market may increase to a record high of RMB1.3 trillion to RMB1.5 trillion in 2021 after exceeding RMB1 trillion in 2020, driven by many positive factors. Total foreign holdings of Chinese onshore bonds may rise to between RMB4.5 trillion and RMB4.7 trillion by the end of 2021, up from RMB3.1 trillion at the end of November 2020. It is estimated that the share of foreign holdings in Chinese government bonds may rise from 9% in 2020 to about 12% in 2021. At the same time, because of the interest spread between Chinese and foreign currencies, RMB sets to appreciate, and more foreign capital inflows will further ramp up the expectations on RMB asset appreciation, realizing the Davis Double Play from fundamentals to liquidity.

Investment Advice

胜日寻芳泗水滨 无边光景一时新

在全球货币政策保持宽松态势的情况下，境内外资金对“高收益、低波动”特征的金融产品需求持续提升。中国经济的强劲复苏是全球经济复苏的主要动力，也将是带动财富增值的基本面支撑。但市场风险、政策风险也是不容忽视的，尤其是对境外投资者来说，更需要兼容中国市场特色的投资逻辑。为此，润成能为我们的客户做什么？

In the context that global monetary policies remain easing, Chinese and foreign investors have increasing demand for lucrative and nonvolatile financial products. The strong recovery of the Chinese economy is the main driver of global economic recovery and will be the fundamental support to push wealth appreciation. However, market and policy risks cannot be ignored; and especially for foreign investors, they need to adapt to the investment logic with the characteristics of the Chinese market. To this end, what can we do for our clients?

1.针对我们的境外客户For our foreign clients:

润成将依据客户的投资需求定制全方位的“综合服务商”服务，协助客户快速进入中国市场，抢占先机、避免水土不服，我们包括但不限于为境外投资客户提供以下定制化服务：We will customize a full package of service solutions in light of our clients’ investment needs and help them enter and accommodate to the Chinese market quickly to be one step ahead of others. Our customized services for foreign investors include, but without limitation to:

依据客户的投资范围（如股票、ABS、债券、非上市股权等）提供定制化的投资渠道梳理，如QFII、CIBM直投、QFLP等；对其意向投资主体进行筛选、投前调研和谈判；资金出入的方案设计、投资运作及税收优惠指引；投后追踪监测、监管机构沟通协调、产品清盘等服务。

Customized reorganization of investment channels, such as QFII, CIBM direct, and QFLP, based on clients’ investment coverage (e.g. stocks, ABS, bonds, and unlisted equity);Screening of potential investees, pre-investment research and negotiation;Capital entry & exit scheme design, investment operation and tax preference guidelines; and Regulator communication and coordination, post-investment tracking, product liquidation and other services.

2.针对我们的境内客户For our Chinese clients：

润成将在构建资产风险对冲防火墙的前提下，差异化调整客户境内外投资模型，推动产业联盟、搭乘机遇红利，前瞻性布局资产方案，协助客户谨慎拥抱全球市场。在专业操作下，实现资产全球化配置及稳定增长。

On the premise of building asset risk hedging firewall, we will differentiate and adjust clients’ domestic and overseas investment models, promote industrial alliances and leverage the dividends of opportunities, prospectively devise asset solutions, and assist clients in cautiously embracing the global market. With professional operations, we are poised to help clients achieve global asset allocation and stable growth.

------以上观点来源于润成家族办公室专家团队

Prepared by: expert team of RC Family Office