润成月报l注册制引发市场生态剧变:润成“顶层价值战略护航计划”助前行（中英版）

2021-07-14 11:18 润成家族办公室

202239

近期，我国A股市场迎来科创板创立两周年、创业板注册制改革实施一周年的重要节点，这标志着注册制已在中国资本市场运行达两年时间。总体来看，注册制改革是直击资本市场灵魂的改革，推动A股发行过程更加制度化、透明化和与国际接轨。今年年初通过的“十四五”规划明确表示全面注册制势在必行，将有序推进。在此背景下，面临市场环境的长期变化，各级市场参与者也应与时俱进，对以往的发展战略、投资策略做出调整。剧变之下，上市公司该怎样结合新的市场偏好，充分挖掘、展示自身价值？权益类投资者如何规避新的市场风险，保障资产稳健增值？境外投资者又该如何尽快适应中国市场的环境变化？润成本期月报将为您解惑答疑。

Recently, China’s A-share market ushered in the critical point that marked the two-year anniversary of the foundation of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Board and the one-year anniversary of the reform of the registration-based IPO system on ChiNext, which means the registration system has been in operation in China’s capital market for two years. Overall, the system is subtly driving the changes in the ecology of A-shares, investor structures and pricing mechanisms, so that they gradually emulate those of developed countries. The 14th Five-Year Plan, which was passed at the beginning of this year, clearly states that the full launch of the registration system is imperative and shall take place in an orderly manner. Against such background, market participants at all levels are forced to face the long-term change in the market environment, in addition to promptly adjusting their previous development and investment strategies. In the face of these dramatic changes, how should listed companies take into consideration new market preferences while fully uncovering and showcasing their value? How do equity investors avoid new market risks and ensure the steady appreciation of assets? How do foreign investors quickly adjust to the market changes in China? RC Family Office’s June report shall answer your questions and remove doubts.

【A股生态“物换星移”】

The A-share ecology changes

忽如一夜春风来，千树万树梨花开

1.风云变幻:A股市场生态发生巨大变化，“求关注”或成为常态。A volatile situation: tremendous changes in the market ecology of A-shares and “attention seeking” may become the norm

自注册制实施以来，A股市场发生的显著变化是上市公司的数量增长不断加快。如图1所示，2020年A股新上市公司达396家，超过前两年的总和。而据德勤统计，截至6月18日，2021年新股发行上市数量已达226家，较2020年同期大幅增加。

Since the introduction of the registration system, a notable change in the market of A-shares is the continuous rapid growth of the number of listed companies. As seen in Figure 1, there were 396 newly listed A-share companies in 2020, more than the combined total from the previous two years. According to statistics from Deloitte, by 18 June 2021, the number of companies with newly issued shares has already reached 226, a drastic rise compared with the corresponding period last year.

图1 2018-2020年A股IPO概况

Figure 1 An overview of A-share IPOs between 2018 and 2020

Source: Choice

与此同时，近两年机构投资者也开始逐渐占据市场的主导地位。据中金公司统计，2020年各类机构投资者占比已接近50%，达到近20年的最高点（图2所示），股民转基民成为重要变化。

Meanwhile, institutional investors have begun to dominate leading market positions in the last two years. According to statistics from China International Capital Corporation, institutional investors accounted for almost 50% in 2020, the highest point in the last two decades (see Figure 2), and a major change was the shift from stock investors to fund investors.

图 2 A股各类投资者持股市值占比

Figure 2 Percentage of market value held by various investors in A-shares

Source：Research Department of CICC, RC Family Office

在上述趋势的综合作用下，A股正经历从供不应求的卖方市场转变为买方市场的历史性转折。受此影响，部分上市公司已难以获得足够的关注，处境愈发艰难。甚至有越来越多的中小市值公司开始主动“求关注”，邀请机构投资者进行反向路演，以期提高公司市值和流动性。

Due to the combined effects of the trends stated above, A-shares are experiencing the historical turning point, whereby it is changing from a sellers’ market to a buyers’ market. Consequently, some listed companies are unable to attract adequate attention and are finding themselves in real predicaments. In fact, more and more companies with medium or low market values are actively “seeking attention” and inviting institutional investors to reverse roadshows in the hope of increasing the companies’ market values and liquidity.

2.上下交困:监管趋严，专业度要求远超普通管理水平，“被退市”已全面来袭。An absolute predicament: stricter regulation whose professional requirements have far exceeded normal management standards as forced delisting strikes in full force

与注册制配套而行的是更加严格、规范的专业监管。如表1所示，A股市场监管的法制化程度和惩处力度在不断加强。而更为重要的是，退市标准正不断扩充，退市公司数量大幅增长。据统计，过去30年A股退市公司总和为80家，平均每年不足3家。但仅在2020年，退市公司数量便达到16家，创下历史新高。进入2021年后，这一趋势更为突出，曾出现一日内有三家公司同时退市的情况。且作为退市新规首个执行年度，仅今年前半年就有13家公司完成退市。此外，根据沪深交易所发布的最新规则，未来低于“3亿元市值”也将列入退市指标，该规定将于2021年7月1日开始执行。

The registration system comes with far stricter and more standardised professional regulation. As illustrated by Table 1, the engagement of the legal system and the severity of punishment continue to increase in the regulation of the A-share market. More importantly, more standards are being introduced for delisting and the number of delisted companies is rising substantially. According to statistics, a total of 80 A-share companies delisted in the last three decades, which were less than three per year on average. In 2020 alone, however, 16 companies delisted, setting a historical high. The trend becomes more marked in 2021, and there was one day in which three companies simultaneously delisted. Furthermore, as the first year in which the delisting rules are introduced, 13 companies delisted in the first half of the year alone. According to the latest regulations of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, which shall come into force on 1 July 2021, “a market value of under 300 million yuan” shall be listed among the delisting indictors.

表1 2020年监管大事梳理

Table 1 Chronology of major regulatory events in 2020

Source: RC Family Office

【参与者面临全新挑战】

Market participants face new challenges

欲渡黄河冰塞川，将登太行雪满山

1.上市公司：淘汰加速，退市常态化。Listed companies: expedited elimination and normalised delisting

综合来看，A股从卖方市场向买方市场的转变以及机构投资者话语权的加重，使得市场呈现淘汰加速的态势，并对部分上市公司的发展产生了一定冲击：首先，由于当前A股市场可选择的股票较多，一些研究机构不得不将大部分的研究力量和投资资源集中到部分优质公司身上，部分上市公司表示，因得不到市场足够的关注而担忧；其次是上市公司“带帽”风险显著加大，据wind显示，2021年以来A股已有超过70家公司被实施ST（退市风险警示），随之而来的是机构投资者清仓式抛售、个人投资者关注下降等负面影响；最后是退市常态化，根据最新的《交易所股票上市规则》，上市公司股价、市值、财务等退市指标不断丰富，执法力度不断加强，退市将日趋常态化。

Overall, the transition of A-shares from a sellers’ market to that of a buyers’ and the increased weight that institutional investors assume have expedited market elimination and created a certain impact on the development of certain listed companies. Firstly, as the current A-share market has an extensive selection of shares, some research institutes have to invest most of their research capacities and resources to certain quality companies, causing some listed companies to express concern over the lack of market attention. Secondly, listed companies face a greater risk of being “marked”. According to wind, over six-dozen A-share companies have been marked with a “delisting risk warning” since 2021, which is followed by negative impacts such as massive share dumping by institutional investors and reduced interest of individual investors. Lastly, delisting will be normalised. According to the latest Rules Governing the Listing of Shares on Stock Exchanges, as delisting indictors such as the share values, market values and financial affairs of listed companies continue to be expanded and the intensity of law enforcement increases, delisting will become normalised.

2.境内权益类投资者：底层资产风险规避难度加大。Domestic equity investors: increased difficulty in risk aversion for underlying assets

当前市场生态快速变化的背景下，权益类投资的风险规避难度将显著提升。一方面，如上海机场、顺丰控股等机构投资者追捧的“白马”公司，因市场竞争过于激烈、经营数据不达预期等原因而被迅速抛弃，股价惨遭“腰斩”。当前环境下，被投企业面临着更为激烈的市场竞争，技术发展瞬息万变，商业模式不断推陈出新，而一旦企业经营的战略战术稍有偏差，将面临市值大幅缩水的风险。另一方面，全媒体时代围绕上市公司的负面信息传播快速且猛烈，通常会对股价造成较大冲击，这对上市公司的声誉管理提出更高要求。如2018年5月，崔永元在新浪微博爆出“影视业阴阳合同”，引起巨大舆论，华谊兄弟、欢瑞世纪、唐德影视等公司的股价大幅下挫。2019年5月，步长制药董事长卷入“斯坦福大学招生行贿”事件，由外媒曝光并转向全民热议，公司股价随之大跌。权益类投资者要想在底层资产配置时有效规避、预防上述投资风险，不仅需要专业、扎实的基本面研究能力，更要具备负面消息的全方位监控预警能力，包括被投企业从日常经营到高管行为的全面评估等，这对投资者的专业水准提出更高要求。

Against the current background of rapidly changing market ecology, the difficulty in risk aversion for equity investments will rise significantly. On the one hand, companies with good performance, such as Shanghai International Airport and SF Express, were once sought after by institutional investors who later quickly dumped them due to fierce market competition and unfavourable business figures, causing their share prices to tumble by half. Under the current circumstances, the invested companies face fiercer market competition as technology undergoes rapid change and business models continue to innovate. And as soon as the business strategies and tactics deviate slightly, the companies risk a sharp fall in their market values. On the other hand, in the age of omnimedia, any negative information concerning a listed company will spread rapidly like wildfire and often significantly impact its share price, thus placing more stringent demands on the reputation management of a listed company. For instance, in May 2018, Cui Yongyuan, a Chinese television personality, exposed the practice of signing dual contracts in China’s film and television industry on China’s microblogging site Sina and caused a public uproar; the share prices of companies such as Huayi Brothers, H&R Century Pictures and Talent Television and Film then plummeted. In May 2019, the chairman of Buchang Pharma was implicated in the bribery for admission to Stanford University. The scandal was exposed by foreign media and gave rise to a lively public debate, which saw the company’s share price nosedived. To effectively avert and prevent the above-stated investment risks during the allocation of underlying assets, in addition to possessing a professional and solid capacity for fundamental analysis, equity investors must be able to extensively monitor and foresee negative news, including a full analysis of the invested companies – from their daily operations to the senior management, which places higher demands on the professionalism of investors.

3.境外投资者：面对新的市场环境，投资风险增加。Foreign investors: a new market environment means increased investment risk

由于中国A股市场正处于新一轮改革发展的大浪潮中，因此市场环境的变化频率、程度都远甚于欧美等发达国家的资本市场。随着近年中国政府加大对资本市场对外开放的政策支持，境外投资者进入A股市场的渠道逐渐丰富，配套服务亦不断完善，投资意愿和规模与日俱增。然而，在不断变化的A股市场中，境外公司若不能准确掌握市场的变化方向并了解“中国特色”的市场环境，面临的风险也将加大。虽然A股正逐渐向境外投资者熟悉的成熟市场转变，但这一过程并不是一朝一夕就能完成的，中间仍会出现反复和波折，充满不确定性。境外公司面临的是一个具有中国特色的资本市场，从资质审批、资金出入等政策层面，以及被投主体信息不对称等市场层面，都需要大量的前期投入和专业的定制化服务，才能妥善应对。

China’s A-share market is undergoing a new round of major reform and development. Consequently, the frequency and extent of market change are far greater than the capital markets in developed countries such as Europe and America. As the Chinese government steps up its policy support for the opening up of the capital market in recent years, different channels become available to foreign investors accessing the A-share market, along with the continuously improving complementary services and growing investment interest and scale. However, in the ever-changing A-share market, if foreign companies are unable to accurately grasp the direction of market change and understand the unique Chinese market environment, they also face increased risk. Although the A-share market is evolving into a mature market with which foreign investors are familiar, the process will not take place overnight and will see reversals and zigzags and be full of uncertainty. What foreign companies face is a uniquely Chinese capital market, and a large number of preparations and professional customised services are necessary to react appropriately, whether it is policies concerning qualification review and capital flows or asymmetric market information on the invested subjects.

【润成“顶层价值战略护航计划”】

RC Top-Level Strategic Support Plan

更喜岷山千里雪，三军过后尽开颜

润成认为，在全面注册制稳步推进的大背景下，完善的市值战略对上市公司行稳致远具有特殊意义，是“破题”的重要路径。但是，以往“短平快”的市值战略思路已不能很好地适应市场变化，上市公司需转而从顶层处着手，追求公司全局战略与市值战略、公司市值与内在价值的协同。部分上市公司“求关注”将变常态，被“ST”和退市的公司数量将不断上升，这便要求权益类投资者具备更扎实和准确的研判、分析能力。由于国内投资环境的复杂性，境外投资者可能会面临较大的阻碍和更高的风险管理成本，对其鉴别能力和联动分析能力也提出了更高的要求。为此，润成能为我们的客户做什么？

RC believes that against the general background of the steady and extensive rollout of the registration system, well-thought-out strategies for the market value are of particular significance to the long-term stability of listed companies and are key means to get the ball rolling. However, the fast and effective market-value strategies and thinking are no longer able to adapt to market changes. Listed companies need to start at the top level and seek to coordinate the overall and market-value strategies and calibrate the market and internal values. It will become the norm that some listed companies need to “seek attention” while the number of companies being marked with a “delisting risk warning” or delisted continues to rise. Equity investors will therefore need to possess a more solid and accurate capacity for analysis and judgement. Due to the complex investment environment in China, foreign investors may face greater obstacles and higher risk-management costs, in addition to higher demands on their abilities to discriminate and perform interconnected analysis. In light of this, what can RC do for our clients?

1.如果您是润成的上市公司客户：If you are our listed-company clients:

润成将为您定制基于行业估值体系和企业长期发展战略的顶层价值战略管理方案。该方案建立在企业自身基本面、行业估值体系、执行落地的基础上，并结合市场投资机构视角、公关视角、传播视角、宏观研究、企业资本发展战略、传承布局等为其提供一篮子的针对性解决方案，包括但不限于“润成定制化新型市值公关”、战略股东引进、投资者关系拓展及维护、资本运作方案制定等。润成专家团队将从长期性战略、全面诊断、度身定制三方面出发，促进市值战略与公司整体的发展战略紧密融合、相互助力。

RC will formulate a top-level strategic management plan for you based on the industry-valuation system and the long-term corporate development strategies. The plan shall be based on the fundamental analysis of your company, the industry-valuation system and launch and execution. Targeted solutions will also be provided, combining the perspectives of market-investment bodies, public relations and communication; macro-research; corporate capital-development strategies; and legacy and planning. The plan shall include but not limited to “RC Family Office’s customised new market-value public relations”, strategic shareholder introduction, expansion and maintenance of investor relations and formulation of capital-operation plans. From the perspectives of long-term strategies, comprehensive diagnosis and customisation, the expert team at RC willpromote the thorough integration and mutual drive of market-value strategies and the overall development strategies of your company.

2.如果您是润成的境内投资客户：If you are our domestic-investment clients:

润成将结合宏观与微观的研判，为您的差异化投资模型进行优化梳理。同时在权益类资产配置方面，我们将在使用风险对冲工具、策略组合等方法最大程度降低风险的前提下，实现资产的有效增值。润成特有的投后舆情追踪系统，将密切监控潜在负面消息，追踪市场最新变化，并围绕所投行业、企业发展阶段、市场趋势、经营和团队情况等提供科学、全面的资产优化方案，扎紧防范投资风险的篱笆。

RC shall combine macro- and micro-research and analysis to offer you an optimised and differentiated investment model. In terms of equity-asset allocation, we will effectively achieve asset appreciation while maximally reducing the risks through means such as risk-hedging instruments and strategy portfolios. Our unique post-investment public-opinion tracking system will monitor closely any potential negative news, track the latest market changes and provide comprehensive, scientific asset-optimisation plans focusing on the invested industries, stages of business developments, market trends and business operations and teams, so as to properly hedge against any investment risk.

3.如果您是润成的境外客户：If you are our foreign clients:

润成将为您投资中国提供定制化的“综合服务商”服务，我们将利用自身的资源储备和专业经验，为您提供全面的本土化投资策略、联动政策分析、投资建议和资金出入渠道梳理等。“国际化团队+本土化资源+深耕中国资本市场的实战经验”为我们服务您投资中国提供了独有的优势。

RC will provide customised general services for your investment in China. Capitalising on our resource reserves and professional experience, we will provide you with comprehensive local-investment strategies, interconnected-policy analysis and investment and capital-flow channel advice. Our internationalised team, local resources and profound practical experience in China’s capital market have given us the unrivalled edge to serve our foreign clients in investing in China.

家族基业永续的远见始终是润成服务客户的出发点，润成认为家族办公室的定制化服务应建立在长期战略眼光的基础上，我们完备的统筹能力、复合型人才队伍、战略思维等优势确保我们具备综合的作战能力，作为客户的管家即“家庭医生”，全方位为客户的基业长青保驾护航。

The sustainability and foresightedness of a family business remain the starting point of RC when serving our clients. We believe the customised services of our family office should be built upon long-term strategies. Our well-rounded organisation and coordination capacity, multi-talent team and strategic thinking ensure our general practical capacities. As client managers, we are also the “GPs” who take care of our clients’ business.